How Will Tariffs Effects us at the Checkout?

What a great question!

I have no clear idea. 

But I’ve been thinking it through…

(First, please note: I’ve sat down to start writing this on three separate occasions, these last three weeks alone. Every time I think I’m near the finish line, the proposed/threatened tariffs shift…. So rather than speak about specific consumer products and commodities from specific countries, let me instead address the issue in general terms). 

We get deliveries from 400 vendors annually — farmers, manufacturers, and distributors — representing thousands of individual brands.

The vast majority of brands we deal with directly (i.e. not through a distributor) are based in the U.S.   Most of these grow or procure most of their ingredients in the US. But even this is rarely “pure.” For example, the tomato sauce maker who sources local tomatoes, grows their own basil, but gets their olive oil overseas. We just learned that our favorite baker gets 90% of his flour from Canada. Canada is closer to New Hampshire than Nebraska is. It’s very hard to make a clear statement about “percents.”

We also work through distributors, and these in turn deal with companies in Scotland, Italy, Poland, Morocco, Tunisia, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Cameroon, Thailand, Israel, Lebanon, Estonia, Canada, Mexico, Japan, China, Turkey, Thailand, Germany, Indonesia, France, Ethiopia, Jamaica, Peru, Bolivia, Spain, Greece, Finland, etc., etc.   

Broadly speaking, a lot of our beans, grains, and animal products are grown in the US – unlikely to see big increases when/if tariffs hit.  On the other hand, healthy food oils, seafood, fruits and vegetables (especially frozen), sweeteners, lentils, nuts, seeds, and supplement and bodycare ingredients are more likely to come from overseas.  

Even when a company grows, manufactures, and ships from the U.S., tariffs may still create indirect impacts via fuel and packaging costs, and cascading effects across a deeply inter-connected global supply chain.  That’s where it gets even more complicated.  And that’s just on the supply side.  Tariffs could have pervasive, indirect effects on the demand side as well. 

All of which is to say that, again, I have no idea. 

If tariffs on Canada and Mexico come back on the table, those impacts would be a little clearer to track.  A lot of produce comes from or through Mexico.  Meanwhile, more and more of our favorite brands are from Canada.  Humble Foods out of Ontario makes the only organic potato chips on the continent right now.   Our new fave paleo vegan desserts (Konscious Kitchen) ship directly from Toronto.  Our #1 clean bulk bodycare and household cleanser brand, the Unscented Company, is out of Montreal. Natural Factors is a Canadian company, and they’re big.  Not to mention staple crops like buckwheat and canola oil.

On a personal note (in case anyone wonders where I stand) I believe in keeping it close to home where we can. There’s an argument to be made from a sustainability perspective, from a community perspective. “Local Food Economies for Global Food Security” is a slogan that resonates deeply. Having said that, Benjamin Franklin’s words also resonate: “No nation was ever ruin’d by trade.” In the end, I fear that it may be more ruinous — for us, and the nations with whom we are intertwined — to take a punitive approach to trade vs. to encourage it.